COVID-19 can be fought with interventions aimed at reducing community transmission and international travel by 80% for eight weeks, according to a new report.
A large team of Chinese and Norwegian researchers have analyzed the spread of the COVID-19 virus with a mathematical model. They found that global collaboration for prompt and intensive intervention is fundamental to coping with the virus in the future. It is likely that there will be more waves of the COVID-19 disease in the years to come.
The new study suggests that reducing community transmission and international travel by 80 percent for eight weeks could avert approximately 90 percent of clinical cases worldwide. This reduction should be sufficient to avoid collapses in the economy and national healthcare systems because of an overload of patients with COVID-19, provided that the reductions are first implimented simultaneously in locations with highly dense populations and the busiest international airports.
The Chinese and Norwegian scientists behind the new report, recently published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), are highly experienced in the studies of epidemiology and pandemics. They have carried out this study as they are convinced that the virus is going to be a global problem for many years to come.
‘A new shot every year’
Until a vaccine against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is available, we have to rely on so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) like social distancing, wearing masks, and so on. Maybe this will be necessary also after we have a vaccine.
“Vaccines against COVID-19 are probably going to work like the influenza vaccines we have become accustomed to. This means that you most likely will need a new shot every year,” says Professor Nils Chr. Stenseth at the University of Oslo. He is one of