Health Life

Study projects the number of COVID-19 contagions to reach its peak in Spain in late November

This transmission electron microscope image shows SARS-CoV-2 — also known as 2019-nCoV, the virus that causes COVID-19 — isolated from a patient in the US. Virus particles are shown emerging from the surface of cells cultured in the lab. The spikes on the outer edge of the virus particles give coronaviruses their name, crown-like. Credit: NIAID-RML

The number of infections from COVID-19 will continue increasing rapidly until November, reaching its peak near the third week of the month. Furthermore, the number of people hospitalized will increase until early December, reaching the peak in the first days of the month; and the number of deaths will continue rising until mid-January of 2021. This is the result of a study in which researchers from the Polytechnic University of Valencia (UPV) and the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) have taken part, and which has been published by journal Chaos, Solitons & Fractals.

In the study, the researchers have developed a randomized computational network model to study the dynamics of the spreading of COVID-19 in Spain, using it afterwards for the simulation of several scenarios depending on the availability or lack thereof of universal antivirals in chemists. In the first scenario, the study simulates the incidence of the virus in the current situation, in which said antiviral is not available, and reveals ‘very concerning’ figures.

“We conducted these simulations in June and, unfortunately, reality is confirming the results that we obtained. And if the trend continues, the figures that the model gives for the last days of this month and the beginning of December are very concerning, with an incidence that could multiply the maximum figures of the first wave by seven. Hence the importance of insisting, from all fields, on the fact that it is the responsibility of everyone to not reach