Health Life

New model predicts the peaks of the COVID-19 pandemic

Credit: Santa Fe Institute

As of late May, COVID-19 has killed more than 325,000 people around the world. Even though the worst seems to be over for countries like China and South Korea, public health experts warn that cases and fatalities will continue to surge in many parts of the world. Understanding how the disease evolves can help these countries prepare for an expected uptick in cases.

This week in the journal Frontiers, researchers describe a single function that accurately describes all existing available data on active cases and deaths—and predicts forthcoming peaks. The tool uses q-statistics, a set of functions and developed by Constantino Tsallis, a physicist and member of the Santa Fe Institute’s external faculty. Tsallis worked on the new model together with Ugur Tirnakli, a physicist at Ege University, in Turkey.

“The formula works in all the countries in which we have tested,” says Tsallis.

Neither physicist ever set out to model a global pandemic. But Tsallis says that when he saw the shape of published graphs representing China’s daily active cases, he recognized shapes he’d seen before—namely, in graphs he’d helped produce almost two decades ago to describe the behavior of the stock market.

“The shape was exactly the same,” he says. For the , the function described probabilities of stock exchanges; for COVID-19, it described daily the number of active cases—and fatalities—as a function of time.

Modeling financial data and tracking a global pandemic may seem unrelated, but Tsallis says they have one important thing in common. “They’re both ,” he says, “and in complex systems, this happens all the time.” Disparate systems from a variety of fields—biology, network theory, computer science, mathematics—often reveal patterns that follow the same basic shapes and evolution.

The financial graph appeared in